The government’s focus on the economy is a welcome change, but education reform is crucial to the country’s long-term success
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When Myanmar announced its COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) at the end of April 2020, the country was only just beginning to reap the fruits of long overdue economic reforms. The World Bank had originally forecast GDP growth of 6.4 percent for FY 2019/20, which was cut to 0.5 percent; it narrowly avoided a recession forecast only because of a strong start to the fiscal year.
The CERP is headlined by seven main goals that encompassed 76 specific actions, which included firm commitments to mega infrastructure projects that had previously been going around in circles.
“If those mega projects that have been listed go ahead, and I’m confident they will go ahead, I do not see our GDP dropping much,” observes Serge Pun, Chairman of Serge Pun & Associates Ltd and Yoma Bank. “You’re talking multibillion dollars being put into this. I see a massive increase in employment, and I see downstream great economic opportunities because of the infrastructure that had not existed before.
“I’m cautiously optimistic of our economic outlook. We’ve always been waiting for something to happen, and now it’s happening.”
Rebuilding the economy
Pun made those remarks at a recent SMU Industry Leaders Virtual Dialogue where he described the current administration’s early focus on social and political issues, often at the expense of the economy, as “driving a car with very little fuel”.
“That’s only been realised in the last year by this administration, and they have started to work on it,” says Pun, who is also the Chair of SMU’s International Advisory Council (IAC) in Myanmar. “And now we have the pandemic which, in a way, is good because it highlighted the issues and it forces the current administration to look at them seriously.
“The next five years after November’s elections, we’re hoping that the economy will take centre stage,” notes Pun, who says there is sufficient international and homegrown human capital to develop the economy. “All we need is a very good economic policy, and that policy has got to be holistic and strategic, and not piecemeal.
“That was the big drawback we had in the past, that we always had piecemeal policies that contradict each other frequently. If we have [good economic policy], we would go very fast forward.”
Given the many economic disruptions, including those to agriculture, which provides half of all employment in Myanmar, there is only so much the government can do with the modest resources at its disposal. However, Pun points out that “virtually every sovereign wealth fund is involved in Myanmar one way or another”, and apart from these entities the country can look forward to foreign direct investment (FDI). He opines that “we are probably ok to fuel our economy for the next few years”.
What is holding the country back, he says, is the quality of education.
“Young people are not receiving the necessary education,” he laments. “Reform should start with teachers. If you don’t have qualified teachers, how could you have properly educated students?
“Second, the resources of education institutions and government schools are so limited, they simply could not pay enough for qualified teachers. There’s very little motivation for bright people to become teachers.”
He adds: “I hope there will be a time when we would have an enlightened education policy which requires the leadership of the brightest mind in education to be involved in the education ministry, and then we’d have a chance.”
The new normal and new generation
As October comes to a close, Myanmar is averaging over 1,000 new COVID-19 cases daily following an outbreak that took off in the beginning of September. While it has placed extra pressure on all stakeholders, Pun believes the underlying fundamentals of daily life remain unchanged.
“The world will more or less be the same except for what we now call the ‘new normal’,” he says. “It’s basically a change in behaviour rather than needs. Every country and its people will still have the same needs that they had pre-COVID, and it will continue to be so.
“I would like to say we haven’t changed our plans in any big way. We are still on track, and will continue to be on track. We have made adjustments to the new behaviour under the new normal, and that’s about it.”
Now 67, Pun has all four of his sons in the business. For someone who started the company as a young man in the turbulent 1970s and built it into the conglomerate it is today, how is he handling succession planning?
“I find it more difficult to lecture my sons than any other young people around, and these young people say they would listen to me but they won’t listen to their father,” he quips with a wry smile. “You don’t have to say much. They will observe, and they will either copy you or they will rebel if they don’t like the way you’re operating.
He adds: “We’ve got to give the [next generation] chances to make mistakes, and be able to accept that and take it. Many parents either don’t give them the chance to make mistakes because they don’t want their kids to make that mistake, or cannot accept any mistakes that their children make. Therefore, the children have a hard time.
“We are where we are today because of our mistakes, not because of our successes. And the more mistakes we make when we’re young guarantees our success. Yet we don’t permit our young to make mistakes. We either over-protect them or are too strict, and there is no empowerment. That’s my personal view.”
Serge Pun was the speaker at the SMU Industry Leaders Virtual Dialogue held on 14 September 2020. He is Chairman of Yoma Group.
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Last updated on 14 Dec 2020 .
