Where the World is Heading in 2023 and Beyond Pursue Sustainability, Stay Paranoid An interview with Ho Kwon Ping, Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings Achieving Success In Silicon Valley Care Labour Shortage Needs a cure VOL.10 S$16.00
CONTENTS 01 CONTENTS 04 FROM THE EDITOR AT THE HELM 06 PURSUE SUSTAINABILITY, STAY PARANOID an interview with Ho Kwon Ping, Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings Havovi Joshi VANTAGE POINT 10 WHERE THE WORLD IS HEADING in 2023 and beyond Simon Baptist 06 10 Every facet of the company has to be examined while driving sustainable practices, and as an economist, I can tell you that it is all about trade-o s and the allocation of scarce resources according to your priorities. - Ho Kwon Ping, Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings Asian Management Insights July 2023
EXECUTIVE BRIEF 18 VISION CREATION what really works best Rameshwari Ramachandra, Poorani Thanusha, Phat Ho Tan Phan, and Max-Ferdinand Scheichenost 26 NAVIGATING INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS why start-ups need to speak the language of numbers Yong Hsin Ning and Yvette Lim CASE IN POINT 32 CHINA’S MYbank creating shared value Heli Wang and Lipika Bhattacharya INDUSTRY WATCH 38 MAKING MANUFACTURING STRATEGIC for the 21st century Arnoud De Meyer, Kasra Ferdows, and Ann Vereecke 38 60 46 RETHINKING PLATFORM BUSINESSES in the digital era Vijaya Sunder M and Rithica Mamidi 54 CARE LABOUR SHORTAGE NEEDS A CURE not more Band-Aids Yasmin Ortiga THE ENTREPRENEUR’S CORNER 60 ACHIEVING SUCCESS IN SILICON VALLEY how a start-up founder tried, failed, and finally succeeded Desmond Lim A WALK THROUGH ASIA 64 REBUILDING SUPPLY CHAINS IN APEC this calls for greater collaboration Rebecca Sta Maria PARTING SHOT 66 NATIONAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS how to future-proof them How Choon How If the COVID-19 pandemic was the central theme from 2020 to 2022, geopolitics looks set to take centre stage in 2023. - Havovi Joshi, Editor-in-Chief, Asian Management Insights 32 02 Singapore Management University
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Havovi Joshi EDITOR Lim Wee Kiat DEPUTY EDITOR Alvin Lee CONTRIBUTING EDITOR Thomas Lim PRODUCTION EDITOR Sheila Wan EDITORIAL BOARD Indranil Bose Nykaa Chair Professor of Consumer Technology at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and Distinguished Professor at NEOMA Business School, France Goutam Challagalla Professor of Marketing and Strategy at IMD, Switzerland Roy Chua Associate Professor of Organisational Behaviour & Human Resources at Singapore Management University Robert J. Kauffman Professor Emeritus of Information Systems at Singapore Management University Michael Netzley Affiliated Faculty at IMD Business School Rajendra Srivastava Novartis Professor of Marketing Strategy and Innovation at the Indian School of Business Tan Chin Tiong Professor Emeritus of Marketing at Singapore Management University Philip Zerrillo Professor of Marketing at Thammasat University, Thailand CREATIVE DESIGN C2 Design Studio Pte Ltd Asian Management Insights (ISSN 2315-4284) is published thrice a year at a recommended retail price of S$16 by the Centre for Management Practice, Singapore Management University, 81 Victoria Street, Singapore 188065. We welcome comments and letters to the editor, which should be sent with the writer’s name, address, and phone number via email to ami@smu.edu.sg. Letters may be edited for length and clarity, and may be published in any medium and at the Editor’s discretion. All letters become the property of Asian Management Insights and will not be returned. Submissions: We encourage submissions. Proposals for articles should be addressed to ami@smu.edu.sg. Unsolicited manuscripts will be returned only if accompanied by a self-addressed stamped envelope. Subscriptions: Please email enquiry to ami@smu.edu.sg For further information, to advertise or request reprints, please contact: ami@smu.edu.sg Copyright © 2023 Singapore Management University. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission. The views expressed in articles are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Asian Management Insights, the Centre for Management Practice, or Singapore Management University. Authors may have consulting or other business relationships with the companies they discuss. All information in this publication is verified to the best of the publisher’s ability. Singapore Management University does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. 66 Asian Management Insights July 2023
FROM THE EDITOR Charting directions and steadying the ship amidst the storms, waves and currents If the COVID-19 pandemic was the central theme from 2020 to 2022, geopolitics looks set to take centre stage in 2023. Given the war in Ukraine, as well as the increasingly strident sabre-rattling between the US and China, the rest of the world is girding itself for what could be significant economic fallout. Throw in high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates, and it is no wonder the world appears to be in an extended period of instability and insecurity, otherwise known as a ‘permacrisis’. China’s post-COVID reopening will provide a boost for the global economy, says Simon Baptist, Chief Economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit, but the country’s ageing population– its mortality rate has surpassed its birth rate–and its maturing economy signal the end of double-digit GDP growth. Meanwhile, wider concerns over commodity security will occupy the attention of several governments, while the developed world ramps up its green transition to a low-carbon economy. Banyan Tree Holdings, like the eponymous tree, has navigated the travails of the last few years and emerged stronger than ever. Its founder and Executive Chairman, Ho Kwon Ping, tells me how a commitment to physical sustainability and social justice built trust with employees, which guided the hospitality chain through the pandemic. From walking the talk by taking zero salary to reflecting on lessons learnt from numerous crises, he expresses optimism about Asia’s prospects and urges fretful youth to just “do something because you will learn along the way”. Desmond Lim, co-founder of hourly worker people management platform Workstream, is a great example of doing and learning. The serial entrepreneur describes his experiences from running a restaurant while he was an undergraduate student, to working as an unpaid intern while taking his MBA, and the disappointment he experienced from a failed start-up. Through it all, he persevered and prevailed in Silicon Valley with the motto: Be humble and hungry. Over in Southeast Asia, the start-up scene is maturing and founders can choose from plenty of investors and venture funds for investment. Yong Hsin Ning and Yvette Lim share how many founders are still unable to speak the language of numbers, and they therefore fail to attract the right investors. They propose a change in founders’ behaviour through adherence to the ‘Head’, ‘Heart’, and ‘Hand’ principles. Perhaps those founders would benefit from focusing on developing the right vision. According to Rameshwari Ramachandra, Poorani Thanusha, Phat Ho Tan Phan, and Max-Ferdinand Scheichenost, a core individual in the organisation must serve as the sponsor to give life to the vision, driving its adoption and implementation over the long term. Most importantly, the vision must address the fundamental concerns of the customer, and progress must be measurable. MYbank in China had a vision to create shared value with, and for, the millions of underserved small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and rural farmers. The Ant Group-backed company used Artificial Intelligence (AI) to reach customers with low balances, and thereby spark economic activity. With competition intensifying, this issue’s Case In Point by Heli Wang and Lipika Bhattacharya looks at how MYbank can remain competitive while steering a path between profitability and social responsibility. In Nigeria, Logy.AI is also harnessing technology to serve the less affluent. Using a digital screening tool that operates through WhatsApp, Logy.AI generates oral digital reports. As Vijaya Sunder M and Rithica Mamidi write, value is created by combining non-digital products and services such as dental care with digital media platforms like WhatsApp. Digital technology also plays a role in national healthcare systems as its population ages. Using Singapore as an example, How Choon How explains a country’s pivot towards prevention and early intervention, and how technology and digital initiatives can improve health outcomes. He also articulates the need to intensify sustainability efforts in national healthcare systems. Hospitals hire a fair number of foreign healthcare professionals, and Yasmin Ortiga warns it might not be a sustainable practice in the long term. Countries like the Philippines are limiting the number of health professionals who can work overseas, while those who qualify for staff positions in Western countries are skipping places such as Singapore and Japan for the US and the UK. Policymakers must rethink the treatment of care workers as ‘temporary’ migrants to address the workforce shortage. Also dealing with a talent gap is the manufacturing business, given the lure of tech start-ups and finance. Arnoud De Meyer, Kasra Ferdows, and Ann Vereecke argue that manufacturing can break out of its defensive mode, and build strategic strength instead. At the core of it all, it needs to embrace the increased data density of products and build tighter connections in the manufacturing process. And we end where we begin: COVID-19 and geopolitics, specifically, the disrupted supply chains in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region, and ways to repair them. Rebecca Sta Maria tells us how APEC is working on building connectivity in this part of the world, and focusing on flexibility, collaboration, and the environment. Finally, you might have noticed this is the second issue this year after the first one in March. Asian Management Insights (AMI) now comes to you thrice instead of twice a year in March, July, and November. With the extra issue, we hope to introduce readers like yourself to the latest management issues, ideas, and innovations in the region. We welcome feedback and suggestions to make AMI an illuminating read. 2023 is half-done, and it has been eventful thus far. May the rest of the year bring relative peace, predictions of the world in permacrisis notwithstanding. DR HAVOVI JOSHI Editor-in-Chief Asian Management Insights havovijoshi@smu.edu.sg 04 Singapore Management University
AT THE HELM Pursue Sustainability, Stay Paranoid in a Post-COVID World Ho Kwon Ping, Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings, speaks to Havovi Joshi about making sure sustainability is more than just a buzzword, his optimism regarding Asia’s growth in the future, and the need for youths to think differently about their careers. 06
Banyan Tree Holdings, with over 60 resorts and hotels in 23 countries, is renowned for its focus on driving sustainability in hospitality. But what does the concept of sustainability really mean to you? How do you push the adoption of sustainable practices across all aspects of the business? To me, sustainability must be all-embracing; it is not simply physical sustainability, but also social sustainability and social justice. It means that at the end of the day, you run your enterprise in a manner that is sustainable for a very long time within a balanced equilibrium. In other words, the practice of sustainability must be holistic and consider all stakeholders, not only shareholders. So, if a company is making billions of dollars in profits, but retrenches thousands of workers when its share price begins to drop a little, one has to ask, “Is this regular cycle of hiring and firing sustainable for all stakeholders?” We set up Banyan Tree 35 years ago and started on our sustainability journey way before it became a buzzword. I created what I considered to be our ‘guardian values’, which are about empowering people and embracing the environment. And we did this quite consciously. It was at a time when the debate in the West was seldom about peoples’ livelihoods. The thinking was that if you could save an endangered snail species by not building a dam, that would be the highest priority–even though that infrastructure might be absolutely necessary for the livelihood of the people. It’s a laudable cause but it’s one-sided. There are many such cases where the classic dilemma pits economic development, social growth, and the physical environment against one another. Therefore, we consciously created the phrase “embracing the environment, empowering people”. Today, we want to emphasise that it’s not just about being carbon neutral; it’s also about being respectful to your associates and creating trust between yourselves and them. It’s about an enterprise which can sustain itself, generation after generation, in a balanced way which benefits all stakeholders. That, to me, is at the very heart of sustainability. For example, for 35 years we have run a completely free kindergarten for all our associates in Phuket, Thailand which is paid for out of our profits. To me, this is as much about sustainability as the other good things that we’re doing, such as planting trees and protecting the marine environment. Another example is that we’re the only hotel company in China that insists on the service charge collected by hotels to be paid out to associates. In contrast, other owners want the associates to collect the service charge from the consumer, but then they keep it, as it boosts their revenue and profit figures. And that makes the fees for the management companies higher. So, every facet of the company has to be examined while driving sustainable practices, and as an economist, I can tell you that it’s all about trade-offs and the allocation of scarce resources according to your priorities. I also want to emphasise that what we do is not all about sustainability or having a certain set of established practices. It’s about holding true to your core values and examining every single practice, asking ourselves what is the right thing to do when one thing conflicts with another. Moving on to the COVID-19 crisis, the effects of the pandemic on the hospitality industry were unprecedentedly challenging. What insights and learnings have you taken away from it? Hospitality is a fragile industry, so any kind of event risk is detrimental to it, whether it comes from the industry itself, politics, physical climate, or public health crises. In my 30plus years in this industry, I’ve gone through the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2003, political riots, financial crises, and many other events. So I have developed an attitude of “only the paranoid survive”–a phrase coined by Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel. As a result, I’ve always run Banyan Tree with a paranoid mentality, believing that the worst things can happen at any time. And because we’ve gone through some pretty bad times, when the COVID-19 crisis happened– which is clearly the worst crisis we’ve ever been through– we were relatively well prepared when everything went to zero and all travelling stopped. We did have to scramble to reschedule our debts, but we’ve been through that before with the financial crises. We had to retrench and, on top of that, we had to adopt voluntary pay cuts. But we’ve been through all that too. We’ve gone through previous pay cuts and established trust between ourselves and our associates–that if they take pay cuts, so would we, and the highest paid in the company get the highest pay cuts. I took zero salary, the CEO took a 75-percent pay cut, and this measure went all the way down the line. Sustainability must be all-embracing; it is not simply physical sustainability, but also social sustainability and social justice. Asian Management Insights July 2023
But when you ask people to sacrifice, you also have to reward them when good times return. So, this year, we’ve given large appreciation bonuses. Our people are very happy. It’s another reaffirmation that a crisis can, if properly handled, bring people closer together. What I’ve learned is that trust and the social compact–whether it is between a government and its citizens, or a company and its associates– is absolutely the most critical thing. Not popularity, but respect and trust. Looking at Banyan Tree today, we’ve got 67 hotels and over 50 in the pipeline. We’ve also introduced a lot more brands, of which three were launched during the pandemic. We are also much leaner now. We’ve come out of the pandemic much stronger, but I’ve always said that hubris is the most dangerous thing, and it will bring down a company faster than anything else. The minute we think that we’re riding high is the time to watch out. How optimistic are you about Asia leading global growth for the foreseeable future, and what opportunities would this bring for Banyan Tree Holdings? I am very optimistic about Asia and will approach this question from a civilisational point of view, as opposed to a purely economic or geopolitical point of view. From a historical perspective, the Western-dominated world only came about in the last two to three hundred years. This didn’t happen purely because of bad things like imperialism or colonialism; it was largely due to factors like the role of science rather than superstition, including the rise of rationalism in the West, the separation of the church and state, and the acceptance of a rules-based order. This is why Western civilisation became dominant and it led to enormous benefits for the whole world. But if you look at it from the perspective of a civilisation as old as India or China, which has gone through ups and downs and successes and declines over several centuries, you’d realise that these countries and South Asia as a civilisation are not going to be what it was over the last 100 years. And, in fact, I think part of what’s happening in the world today is a high degree of unease in the Western world that the age of Western dominance is giving way to how things used to be 400 years ago, when there was no dominant civilisation. The world then had a number of competing and co-existing civilisations, all having their day in the sun, and we are now moving back to where there will be several major powers. Not surprising, it’s been very uncomfortable for those who have been at the very top to give way to others. That said, at Banyan Tree Holdings, we can’t plan based on a 200-year timeline. It is ironic; for the first time in my life, when the rest of the world is falling apart, I don’t see our business falling apart, and I’m trying to reconcile that and ask myself, “Is that really possible?” I just can’t believe it because I’m normally a real worrier. But we have had our best year so far, and that’s largely because Thailand, one of our key areas of operation, has become a safe haven. We had thought that coming out of COVID-19, life this year would be really difficult because of China and US tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and so on. But the property purchases that we’re seeing in Phuket have been quite unbelievable. A lot of middle-class Chinese and Russians are buying because the country is neutral towards them. At the same time, with cryptocurrencies and banks falling apart, Asian banks remain very strong. Our major lender in Thailand has raised its interest rate from 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent, compared to 5 percent or so elsewhere. Because of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, you’ll find that banks in Singapore, as well as in Thailand, Indonesia, China–pretty much all of Asia–have been spared the turmoil in the West. From an economic point of view, the potentially looming financial crisis is likely to be contained largely in the West. However, I’m not assured that it’s going to be all that unproblematic. It is entirely possible that another bank might fall, and the whole domino effect will affect us here in Asia. We’re probably in the most globally fragile period ever in the last 20 years. I’ve said to all my colleagues, when times are good, we’d better make as much money as we can, don’t spend it, and store it away. One thing is for sure–a few years from now, something terrible is going to happen. What’s it going to be? I can’t see it right now. Think about your capabilities, the domain, or the area that you’re interested in, because your career is likely to change so much during your lifetime. 08 Singapore Management University
Ho Kwon Ping is Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings. He is also Founder and Executive Chairman of Laguna Resorts and Hotels, and Executive Chairman of Thai Wah Public Company Dr Havovi Joshi is Director of the Centre for Management Practice and Editor-in-Chief of Asian Management Insights, Singapore Management University Looking at the industry I’m in, I’ve long been talking about something called ‘rainbow tourism’. Even up to about 30 years ago, tourism involved mostly people of one colour, moving in mostly one direction. It was mostly white, and it was moving mostly from the West to the East. But in the last 20 years or so, that has changed. Our clientele used to consist of 80 percent Europeans visiting Southeast Asia; today we’re getting Indians, Arabs, Chinese, and everybody else. So that is a huge change, and much of it is buoyed by the fact that there are 600 million people in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), 1.2 billion people in China, and 1.4 billion in India. They’re part of the fast-growing middle class that has attained a certain level of affluence, and they all want to travel. And this also coincides with the rise of low-cost carriers and inexpensive accommodations. Travel is no longer a luxury. Its purpose is to see and learn about how other people live, especially in the post-COVID world. I’m very, very optimistic that travel is becoming a basic human yearning because people have reached the level where that yearning can be satisfied by their earnings. I’ve always argued that the magical thing about the hotel industry is that it’s a place where everybody comes together from all ethnicities and all ages. If you do it right, you’ll create a real atmosphere in the hotel where people build a sense of who they are and who others are, and you learn from one another. Diversity must be our core value, not only for our associates, but also in terms of how we represent ourselves to the customer. As an experienced leader who has been through several crises, what advice would you have for the youth today? I’d say this to students–don’t ever think about having a single career anymore. Instead, think about your capabilities, the domain, or the area that you’re interested in, because your career is likely to change so much during your lifetime. I also tell the youth that they must not be discouraged if it takes time to get a job or if there is a layoff. Now, that’s easier said than done I would tell the youth today that even if you don’t know what you’re going to do, do something, because you will learn along the way. Don’t sit at home and mope. for people my age who’ve created successful careers, but it’s quite debilitating for a young person to be hired, and then be laid off. It’s very distressing for a person to send thousands of job applications and not have somebody shortlist you. But what else can you say? The other piece of advice I have for them is that you have to try a lot of gigs. I started out as a freelance journalist because I didn’t want a 9-to-5 job. I had to pitch for jobs that would belong to the gig economy in today’s world. I’ve also taken on all kinds of odd jobs. I’ve worked on merchant ships and done menial labour, not thinking that I want to stay there or having this romantic idea that it’s a great thing to do, but because I thought I should try to understand what working life is like for someone who holds a blue-collar job. What I have found to hold really true in my life is that everything I did in the past has had an impact on my future. I used to hitchhike because I love travelling, and that led me to found Banyan Tree. When the late Steve Jobs delivered his 2005 Stanford University commencement address, he said that he spent only one semester at Reed College in Oregon where he took a class in calligraphy because he liked it. And then when he founded Apple, he started with the whole idea of having different fonts for the computer because he liked calligraphy. Not that computer fonts are revolutionary, but it’s another demonstration that everything that you are is a compilation of what you were before. I would tell the youth today that even if you don’t know what you’re going to do, do something, because you will learn along the way. Don’t sit at home and mope. Get a job for a lark. Do anything you want to do because it will build you up as a person. Never feel sorry for yourself; never feel that the world owes you something. You go and make it. You just have to make it. And that spirit, I believe, is a very strong spirit. Asian Management Insights July 2023
VANTAGE POINT Where the World is Heading in 2023 and Beyond 10
iven the turn of world events in 2022, it is little wonder that "permacrisis" was the word of the year according to the editors of the Collins English Dictionary. Meaning “prolonged period of instability and insecurity”, it sets the stage for us to confront the difficulties the world faces in 2023, and most likely even beyond. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become the most significant land war in Europe since the end of the Second World War. In addition, it has not only heightened the risk of nuclear escalation to a level that the world has not experienced since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, but also triggered the most comprehensive sanctions regime in recent memory. As if things cannot get worse, soaring commodity prices have driven inflation to its highest across the globe since the 1980s, posing the most substantial macroeconomic challenge in today’s financial landscape. In this article, I first offer a thumbnail sketch of the global growth picture in 2023, particularly that of Asia, before I elaborate on some major ongoing developments and their effects. China’s post-zero-COVID reopening will support the economy, but the growth rate will decelerate in the medium term. Challenging business conditions in the country, alongside worsening geopolitical anxieties amid rising US-China tensions, will encourage investment diversification among multinationals. Meanwhile, the high cost of borrowing will somewhat deter investment. Finally, I look at how the world addresses complex questions on the green transition, and the major implications it will have for governments, economies, companies, geopolitical alliances, and society at large. THE WORLD IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2023 Global economic growth will slow sharply in 2023, reflecting persistent headwinds stemming from the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, as well as high inflation and rising interest rates. The global economy is expected to grow at around two percent in 2023, measured at market exchange rates, which is substantially higher than that for a typical recession year, yet it is still some way off the three-percent growth experienced in an average year. That said, the world economic outlook is brighter than it was at the end of 2022, owing in large part to China’s post-zero-COVID reopening. G by Simon Baptist The global economy is showing resilience, despite strong headwinds. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, while the mounting threats from climate change call for more urgent global action. Asian Management Insights July 2023
In the Asia Pacific region, India will be the fastest-growing big economy this year, followed by China and Indonesia. Meanwhile, South Korea, Australia, and Japan are also in the top 10 of the Group of Twenty (G20) growth table for the year ahead (refer to Figure 1). Overall, Asia is a relative bright spot in 2023. However, the overall picture is still weak, and growth in global trade will slow significantly this year, even if this is not universally true across Asia. High interest rates worldwide and low investor sentiment–stemming from geopolitical strains and global economic uncertainty–will depress market confidence. Economic slowdowns in the US and the EU will depress global demand until late 2023 as tighter credit conditions discourage household and business spending. Slowing global demand will also be a constraint on Asia’s growth in 2023. The trade slump would be more significant were it not for the moderate strengthening expected in Chinese demand, which will provide some support for shipments in Asia. This year, China’s economy is projected to grow at 5.7 percent as a result of its reopening, thereafter growth will begin to decline again; this would be a slow rebound compared to that of most other countries coming out of lockdown. FIGURE 1 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW SHARPLY IN 2023 Real GDP % ranked by 2023 growth Source: EIU -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2022 2023 Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China EU27 France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa South Korea Turkey United Kingdom United States of America World 12 Singapore Management University
CHINA’S POST-COVID RECOVERY China is now an upper middle-income economy, especially when looking at its eastern provinces. Its GDP per capita is quite similar to that of many European countries, albeit the slightly poorer ones like those in Eastern Europe. China’s growth story is an important one for the world (especially for the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), although it is changing. If we ignore the ups and downs related to the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s baseline growth rate is around four to five percent, and by the end of the decade, this will drop to just under three percent. A three-percent growth rate is what we would expect of a developed market in a fairly good year, and it would not be out of place in countries like the US or Germany. However, when China hits this rate, it will not be as rich, and it will be a big step-down compared to its GDP growth rates in the past decade, which were more than or sometimes even triple of those of developed nations. This year, China’s economy is projected to grow at 5.7 percent as a result of its reopening, thereafter growth will begin to decline again; this would be a slow rebound compared to that of most other countries coming out of lockdown. The era of China as a high-growth economy is certainly over. Why China will slow down Three main internal factors explain why China’s growth rate will slow in the coming years. First, its population is contracting. Earlier this year, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) found data that confirmed the population shrinkage in the country (refer to Figure 2). The workforce age group between 15 and 64 has been shrinking since 2015, and there has been an increase in the number of elderly. The fall in the population came after years of low birth rates, although the figures also reflect the impact of the pandemic–and associated economic downturn–on national fertility rates. The second key drag on China’s growth rate is falling levels of productivity. Historic evidence tells us that privatesector firms are, overall, much more productive and efficient than government-run firms. However, the Chinese government has been expanding the role of state-owned enterprises in the economy. Capital and workers have been reallocated from private to public firms, which has meant moving resources away from more productive activities towards less productive ones. All of this is reducing the overall productivity of the Chinese economy, as well as the output per worker and per unit of capital. FIGURE 2 ALTHOUGH INFLUENCED BY THE PANDEMIC, THE DECLINE IN CHINA'S POPULATION WAS FORESHADOWED BY YEARS OF LOW BIRTH RATES The death rate has surpassed the birth rate (%) Source: National Bureau of Statistics, EIU Family sizes are not expanding (Number of births; millions of children) First child Third child (and after) Second child 2003 05 10 15 20 21 10 8 6 4 2 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 2012 14 16 18 20 22 Birth rate Mortality rate Asian Management Insights July 2023
The third key drag is the end of the construction boom. China in the past needed a lot more houses, roads, and infrastructure, and as a result, the government was actively focused on construction. Despite how much money was going in, there was enough new economic activity to soak that up. However, that period has now ended as China’s economy matures. Property firms are loaded up on bad debt, and there are big bubbles in the construction sector and house prices in the country. The year 2022 witnessed the broadest and steepest deterioration in China’s property sector since 1998, with new home sales shedding RMB 5 trillion (US$744 billion) in value. EIU estimates that the property-related drag totalled 1.6 percentage points of real GDP growth in 2022. Notably, house prices in Beijing and Shanghai, compared to incomes in those cities, are the highest in the world, and that boom has run out of legs. Evergrande is the biggest property developer in trouble, but a lot of its peers are also running out of money, and the government has had to step in to provide support. Tensions in geopolitical ties and their impact on China’s economy China’s growth is also affected by the deterioration in its geopolitical relationships. The country is experiencing tensions with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and the US and other nations, too. Russia is the only large country that still maintains close political relations with China. The two countries have planned a pipeline–Power of Siberia 2–to deliver natural gas to China via Mongolia, as Russia pivots away from Europe and re-orients its gas exports to Asia. However, the pipeline is unlikely to come on stream until the early 2030s (if at all). On balance, China’s support of Russia has damaged its relations with several countries, particularly in the West. This has affected inbound and outbound investment opportunities, even if trade had remained resilient. Semiconductor chips, a crucial input for almost all technology, are the most pertinent example of how the tensions are unfolding. China is reliant on US semiconductor technology, and on South Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing, because what China produces domestically is much less sophisticated. At the same time, there has been a renewed push towards reshoring, and much of this is driven by US controls on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China. This has halted the development and production of advanced chips in China, and the country is unlikely to achieve selfsufficiency in these chips in the foreseeable future. Still, China is pouring substantial resources into its semiconductor sector, which should entail a degree of selfsufficiency in lower end semiconductor segments. In the next five years, China is likely to achieve cost advantages Investors are back to favouring traditional assets that would produce higher yields, explaining the 2022 cryptocurrency collapse. 14 Singapore Management University
over international competitors in many mature technologies, including 4G chips used in telecommunications towers and phones, and analogue chips used in automotive and white goods. This will have consequences for global prices (which could fall) and global supply chains. Ultimately, China has a good chance of reaching the frontier of semiconductor technology. JITTERY FINANCIAL MARKETS Years of ultra-loose monetary policy by major central banks in the aftermath of the 2007-08 global financial crisis kept the cost of capital close to zero around the world. This in turn forced investors to look elsewhere for attractive returns, and large amounts flowed into speculative assets, fintech start- ups and shaky cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, among others. However, with the rise in interest rates amid persistently high inflation, the cost of capital has gone up. Investors are back to favouring traditional assets that would produce higher yields, explaining the 2022 cryptocurrency collapse. Stock markets have also been falling; tech stocks and private equity in particular are bearing the brunt. Overall, the high cost of capital is likely to raise the hurdle for investment in new technologies. The banking sector will have a challenging year ahead because of higher interest rates, resulting in an increasing number of loan defaults. There will be more distress in international debt markets, and countries will face higher costs on their borrowing. A number of countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan have already experienced financial crises. Bangladesh and Mongolia are two other countries in Asia that are also facing debt stress in the year ahead. The recent collapse of three regional US banks, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, as well as the emergency buyout of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, have triggered heightened investor uncertainty, raising the risk of bank runs and financial sector contagion. However, there are reasons that a financial crisis of the scale of what happened in 2007-08 is still unlikely. This year’s bank failures were probably one-off events that can be attributed to these banks’ overexposure to interest-rate-sensitive bonds or, in the case of Credit Suisse, long-standing management issues. A global liquidity crisis remains unlikely for now, given the commitment by the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and other major central banks to establish liquidity facilities and credit swap lines with at-risk banks. Nevertheless, volatility is likely to persist in the coming months, notably as continued monetary policy tightening is prompting investors to re-evaluate where and how they allocate their assets. Price pressures are slow to subside Interest rates have had to rise because of high inflation. Since 2009, price pressures stood at zero to two percent, and most economic difficulties were related to overly low or even negative inflation rates. However, in recent years, supply chain disruptions, higher commodity prices, ultra-loose monetary policy, and recovery from the pandemic have all contributed to a sharp uptick in inflation in the US and the EU. Although central banks have resorted to aggressive interest rate increases to bring inflation down, price pressures have been reluctant to subside. For instance, despite falling headline inflation, core inflation (which excludes energy and food prices) continues to rise in the EU. All of this is likely to bring about a shift in how monetary policy works, and in the mechanisms through which central banks can control inflation. Global inflation is likely to ease from an estimated 9.3 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023, losing momentum as global demand softens and commodity prices continue to ease back from their 2022 peaks. Commodity security takes centre stage The main driver of high inflation has been Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, which caused the prices of all major commodities to rocket, as the two countries have historically been large suppliers of both agricultural and refined commodities. Prices for most commodities are likely to remain high in 2023-24, compared with their 2019 levels. Against this backdrop, commodity security has moved to the centre of economic decision-making in a way not seen before the pandemic. In addition to food security, governments are concerned about gaining access to materials such as copper and lithium that are essential to the global green and digital transition. There is also a desire to enhance the security and resilience of commodity supply chains amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. High commodity prices will add to the challenges facing green transition, with a major impact on developing countries. Asian Management Insights July 2023
Dr Simon Baptist is Global Chief Economist of Economist Intelligence Unit THE GREEN TRANSITION We are seeing quite a strong shift to a low-carbon economy in the developed world over the medium term, particularly in the EU. However, there is little change in the emerging markets. The global economy will approach a crunch point over the next decade where climate policy will either have to shift decisively towards adaptation, or there will be big changes in emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997, emissions in developed countries have not grown very much at all, and in some cases have fallen. In most cases, they are now lower than they were in 1990, but they need to go even lower if the world is to meet net-zero targets by 2050. Meanwhile, the emerging world has seen quite a lot of emissions growth. By 2020, each of the three big Asian markets–China, India, and Indonesia– had roughly quadrupled their emissions since 1990 (refer to Figure 3). China’s emission levels are just about peaking, but we expect Indonesia and India to increase their emissions very rapidly. Compared to 40 years ago, they now produce a lot more emissions. Net-zero targets are near impossible to achieve unless the big emerging markets start to reduce their emissions soon. However, in the near term, there is no political will in these economies to do so. Rapid changes in climate policy will be required by the end of this decade if the world is to hit the 2050 goals. Energy systems take a while to transform, but power stations have lifetimes of 20 to 30 years: if we are not on course by 2030, then it is highly unlikely that we will get there by 2050. THE TIPPING POINT Geopolitics and trade are closely linked. Businesses need to watch geopolitical relations between major countries, their supply-chain linkages, and their major trade partners. Deteriorating US-China ties constitute one of the biggest fault lines in today’s world. The two countries have been on a collision course for the better part of a decade, and there is little prospect of an improvement in relations. Tensions between China and the US (and the West) will remain high in the foreseeable future, and the pressure for third countries to choose sides between China and the US will emerge as a major trade and geopolitical theme over the 2020s. As we exit the pandemic and with the ongoing war in Ukraine, we are in a new era of business and the global economy. Many trends, such as China’s demographic shifts and the green transition, were already unfolding even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world. However, their pace has accelerated, and has become more salient. China’s dramatic exit from its zero-COVID policy, the reshaping of commodity supply chains, heightened international tensions, and the green transition will be important factors to watch over the next decade. EMISSIONS TRAJECTORY WIDENS BETWEEN THE DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING WORLDS Total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion; 1990=100 FIGURE 3 Source: International Energy Agency, EIU *2022-30 values are EIU forecasts 1990 95 2000 05 10 15 20 25 30 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Brazil China India Indonesia Japan United States Westen Europe 16 Singapore Management University
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VISION CREATION EXECUTIVE BRIEF WHAT REALLY WORKS BEST IN 18
pon his promotion, the COO of a Japanese conglomerate realised something was seriously wrong. We asked him what he thought was not working, and it soon became apparent that there was a lack of an effective vision at the firm. As a result of the conversation, the COO gathered the company’s leadership team to figure out how to align their teams. Although it wasn’t easy, this transformational journey to unite the teams around the creation of a shared vision enabled the company to move forward successfully. So why are vision statements important, particularly now? As companies recover from the pandemic to reorient and rally themselves to deal with risks from climate change, global conflicts, and technology breakthroughs, they are also encountering increased political, technological, and societal disruptions.1 This unprecedented situation has clear and profound impacts on workplaces, particularly individuals’ relationships with their jobs. About 70 percent of employees shared that their sense of purpose is defined by their work.2 At the same time, 55 percent of employees claimed to be less productive and engaged as a result of remote working.3 Unsurprisingly, these conditions contribute to worsening mental health, which impacts work performance and a company’s overall strength. Unfortunately, most companies are not prepared to address these emerging issues. Research reveals that whilst most executives say they understand the importance of having a shared company purpose that people can rally around, the majority report that their companies are not operating in a purpose-driven way.4 We believe that a business will be best prepared to thrive within a fraught landscape if it is aligned to a clear and actionable vision. In this article, we address what works and doesn’t work in visioning along with the attributes of a successful vision statement. THE MEANING AND IMPORTANCE OF VISION One can simply Google “company vision” and swap in a few words to make it fit their specific company. Better yet, just ask ChatGPT for some examples and then hang the most impressive-sounding one on the office wall, right? Many of us would have worked for/with organisations that operated this way. Some of them may have even held a half-day planning session followed by a corporate retreat to produce a vision. But such visions are often given little more than lip service at annual meetings and fail to influence on-the-ground operations before being ultimately tossed aside; its impact on daily operations is miniscule, if at all. U by Rameshwari Ramachandra, Poorani Thanusha, Phat Ho Tan Phan, and Max-Ferdinand Scheichenost The answer might surprise you. Asian Management Insights July 2023
What is vision? “A vision is where the company is going. It’s what the future looks like if goals and intentions are accomplished and laid out to be the driving force of how the company defines success,” said thought leader Jen Croneberger.5 According to Mekong Capital6, one of the first private equity firms in Vietnam, a company’s vision is also an announcement of its paramount goals or objectives for the future, where the entire workforce directs their collective attention, energy, and resources towards the actions and breakthroughs required to reach them. In other words, the vision resounds in the company’s communications, especially via its senior leaders when they ask questions, listen, and speak. Whether that future is five, 10, or 30 years from now, the vision is a roadmap for the company when making decisions in accordance with its philosophy and objectives. It must strike a balance between being inspiring and meaningful, and yet be tangible and executable. A successful vision is neither too generic nor overly specific. Without a strong vision, a company can get distracted from its goals and drift into unproductive directions, ultimately losing its way.7 So how can we create a bold, aligned, specific, and measurable vision that becomes a roadmap for success? THE THREE ESSENTIALS FOR CREATING A VISION As consultants in this area over the past two decades, our view is that it is critical to adhere to three essentials when formulating a vision: a committed sponsor must lead the process of creating and fulfilling a vision; the sponsor and a core team inside the organisation, who have each connected to their own life purpose, must come together to co-create the organisation’s vision; as part of this co-creating process, there must be courage to directly resolve certain key challenges and tough issues, especially among members within this core team, and build new levels of trust and collaboration. Once the vision is co-created, it can be communicated and shared with the entire company. As part of cascading down the vision, the company must be willing and prepared to (re)organise its existing artefacts, such as its processes, systems, and structures like key performance indicators (KPIs) and incentives, so that the vision is consistently followed. In 2020, Vitto Hoan My Group (VTHM) created its Strategic Vision 2025. Developing the five-year vision was an opportunity to cement the company’s transition from its founders to the next generation of leaders. They couldn’t have predicted that the visioning process would also prove instrumental in their ability to navigate the marketplace uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns. In this instance, the process started with the family that owned the business setting out its Nguyen Family Future 2050 as a transgenerational legacy. Thereafter, the commitments and values spelt out in its 30-year plan for the future were incorporated when co-creating VTHM’s five-year Strategic Vision 2025 with its senior managers. Nguyen Xuan Quang, Vice-Chairman of VTHM Group and one of its next generation successors, explained, “To create the 30-year future, we had to first alter our thinking paradigm from an individual awareness to a systems awareness before speculating about different future scenarios. When we saw that the future we really want is one high in human potential and strong on sustainable societies, our commitment to the 3Ps—People Development, Planet Renewal, and Progress Sharing–formed the basis of our vision, which was bigger than ourselves, our family, and our businesses. To include those at VTHM in this future and vision, we got our core management team to co-create it with us.” The co-creation effort became a rallying call for the ownerfamily and its company staff to also work on issues previously ignored. In the two years that followed its co-creation, their Strategic Vision 2025 enabled the company to invest in long-overdue elements that would support the transition, such as creating a new total rewards system; engaging international technical experts to elevate its production quality to international standards; reorganising two internal companies, Vitto Group and Hoan My, into VTHM; as well as adopting digital business process management and embarking on its ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) sustainability self-audit. VTHM had previously tried to implement some of these measures but was unsuccessful, because people in the company were not on the same page. Chi Cao, a long-time member of the management team, explained, “In 2020, when the founders got the next generation to assume management VTHM’S VISION CO-CREATION EXPERIENCE9 20 Singapore Management University
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